[article] in OVS : Optometry & Vision Science > vol.99, 05 (Mai 2022) Titre : | The Limited Value of Prior Change in Predicting Future Progression of Juvenile-onset Myopia | Type de document : | article de périodique | Auteurs : | Donald Mutti ; Loraine T. Sinnott ; Noel Brennan ; Xu Cheng ; Karla Zadnik | Année de publication : | 2022 | Langues : | Anglais (eng) | Descripteurs (mots clés) : | [Thésaurus Mesh]Enfant [Thésaurus Mesh]Évolution de la maladie [Thésaurus Mesh]Myopie [Thésaurus Mesh]Prévision
| Résumé : | SIGNIFICANCE: Identifying children at highest risk for rapid myopia progression and/or rapid axial elongation
could help prioritize who should receive clinical treatment or be enrolled in randomized clinical trials. Our models
suggest that these goals are difficult to accomplish.
PURPOSE: This study aimed to develop models predicting future refractive error and axial length using children's
baseline data and history of myopia progression and axial elongation.
METHODS: Models predicting refractive error and axial length were created using randomly assigned training and
test data sets from 916 myopic participants in the Collaborative Longitudinal Evaluation of Ethnicity and Refractive
Error Study. Subjects were 7 to 14 years of age at study entry with three consecutive annual visits that included
cycloplegic A-scan ultrasound and autorefraction. The effect of adding prior change in axial length and refractive
error was evaluated for each model.
RESULTS: Age, ethnicity, and greater myopia were significant predictors of future refractive error and axial length,
whereas prior progression or elongation, near work, time outdoors, and parental myopia were not. The 95% limits
for the difference between actual and predicted change were ±0.22 D and ±0.14 mm without prior change data
compared with ±0.26 D and ±0.16 mm with prior change data. Sensitivity and specificity for identifying fast
progressors were between 60.8 and 63.2%, respectively, when the cut points were close to the sample average.
Positive predictive value and sample yield were even lower when the cut points were more extreme.
CONCLUSIONS: Young, more myopic Asian American children in the Collaborative Longitudinal Evaluation of Ethnicity and Refractive Error Study were the most likely to progress rapidly. Clinical trials should expect average progression rates that reflect sample demographics and may have difficulty recruiting generalizable samples that progress faster than that average. Knowing progression or elongation history does not seem to help the clinical decision
regarding initiating myopia control. | Note de contenu : | Donald O. Mutti, OD, PhD, FAAO,1
* Loraine T. Sinnott, PhD,1 Noel A. Brennan, MScOptom, PhD, FAAO,2 Xu Cheng, MD, PhD,1
and Karla Zadnik, OD, PhD, FAAO,1 for the Collaborative Longitudinal Evaluation of Ethnicity and Refractive Error (CLEERE) Study Group | Permalink : | https://bibliotheque.helb-prigogine.be/opac_css/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id= |
[article]
| |